Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 309 Delta Flight history →	HNL 15:15	ATL 06:00	18%	5%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:07 +1DL 899	11h 32m	96%	80%
United Details →	HNL 00:05 → DEN 10:47UA 1806	2h 54m Denver	DEN 13:41 → ATL 18:46UA 1671	12h 41m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05DL 359	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 23:08 → ATL 07:04 +1DL 567	11h 57m	86%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON