Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4020 Southwest	HNL 13:32	BUR 22:07	13%	4%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 22m San Francisco	SFO 18:37 → BUR 20:00UA 2001	9h 50m	96%	73%
United Details →	HNL 00:05 → DEN 10:47UA 1806	47m Denver	DEN 11:34 → BUR 13:11UA 2154	10h 06m	79%	65%
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	3h 58m Seattle	SEA 13:18 → BUR 15:47AS 529	11h 53m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:01 → SEA 15:39AS 90	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 16:56 → BUR 19:25AS 530	9h 24m	87%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON