Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 09:32, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1806 United Flight history →	HNL 00:05	DEN 10:47	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 383 United Flight history →	HNL 19:40	DEN 06:17	11%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610	11h 15m	97%	83%
United Details →	HNL 09:32 → SFO 17:53UA 1176	3h 27m San Francisco	SFO 21:20 → DEN 01:00 +1UA 301	11h 28m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	2h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 18:22 → DEN 21:39DL 1049	10h 39m	96%	78%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 04m San Francisco	SFO 18:19 → DEN 21:49UA 2436	10h 39m	96%	72%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:01 → SEA 15:39AS 90	3h 21m Seattle	SEA 19:00 → DEN 22:45AS 310	11h 44m	99%	69%
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 13:13 → DEN 16:42AS 639	11h 48m	100%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	52m Seattle	SEA 10:12 → DEN 13:42AS 535	8h 48m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON