Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 6 American Flight history →	HNL 17:39	DFW 06:00	19%	6%	0.9%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 00:05 → DEN 10:47UA 1806	2h 39m Denver	DEN 13:26 → DFW 16:32UA 578	11h 27m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 17:00 → DFW 22:12DL 420	10h 12m	95%	68%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 44m San Francisco	SFO 16:59 → DFW 22:37UA 1336	10h 27m	94%	63%
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 11:06 → DFW 16:55AS 341	11h 01m	96%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON