Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 00:05, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 344 United Flight history →	HNL 15:25	IAD 06:20	15%	4%	1.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:32 → SFO 17:53UA 1176	3h 26m San Francisco	SFO 21:19 → IAD 05:17 +1UA 705	13h 45m	99%	85%
United Details →	HNL 00:05 → DEN 10:47UA 1806	3h 06m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	13h 17m	98%	83%
United Details →	HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157	2h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 23:24 → IAD 07:19 +1UA 418	12h 19m	93%	82%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 50m San Francisco	SFO 17:05 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453	11h 45m	94%	77%
United Details →	HNL 13:27 → SFO 21:33UA 650	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:58 +1UA 2837	11h 31m	78%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON