Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 252 United Flight history →	HNL 19:50	IAH 08:32	20%	6%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 51m Los Angeles	LAX 19:23 → IAH 00:53 +1UA 1680	12h 53m	97%	82%
United Details →	HNL 00:05 → DEN 10:47UA 1806	2h 43m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	11h 59m	98%	77%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	2h 03m San Francisco	SFO 17:18 → IAH 23:09UA 1649	10h 59m	95%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:01 → SEA 15:39AS 90	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 17:51 → IAH 23:51AS 240	11h 50m	96%	63%
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438	11h 22m	95%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON