Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1956 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1956 HNL 05:57 → ITO 07:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1082 HNL 15:21 → ITO 16:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1956 Southwest	HNL 05:57	ITO 07:14	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1957 Southwest	HNL 08:52	ITO 10:09	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1002 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:10	ITO 07:03	7%	2%	1.4%	93%
AS 1022 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	ITO 08:54	10%	2%	1.3%	94%
WN 1960 Southwest	HNL 20:39	ITO 21:48	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1012 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:05	ITO 07:58	13%	3%	1.3%	88%
WN 1958 Southwest	HNL 13:27	ITO 14:44	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1032 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:01	ITO 10:55	14%	4%	1.3%	89%
WN 1959 Southwest	HNL 17:04	ITO 18:13	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1042 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:14	ITO 12:19	16%	4%	1.3%	89%
AS 1112 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:08	ITO 19:13	20%	6%	1.1%	76%
AS 1122 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:20	ITO 20:25	21%	6%	1.2%	80%
AS 1072 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:17	ITO 15:13	21%	6%	1.3%	76%
AS 1132 Alaska	HNL 21:03	ITO 22:08	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
AS 1062 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:31	ITO 14:27	22%	4%	1.3%	87%
AS 1052 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:18	ITO 13:14	23%	6%	1.2%	70%
AS 1102 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:55	ITO 18:00	24%	6%	1.2%	74%
AS 1082 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:21	ITO 16:15	24%	7%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON