Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1961 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1961 HNL 06:07 → KOA 07:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 9643 HNL 13:46 → KOA 14:19 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1961 Southwest	HNL 06:07	KOA 07:14	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1962 Southwest	HNL 09:42	KOA 10:49	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
9X 8547 Southern Airways Express	HNL 05:24	KOA 06:50	6%	2%	1.1%	no record
AS 1018 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	KOA 06:46	6%	1%	1.4%	93%
AS 1038 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:28	KOA 08:26	9%	3%	1.4%	93%
WN 1421 Southwest	HNL 20:29	KOA 21:32	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1028 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:13	KOA 07:59	9%	3%	1.4%	95%
AS 1048 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:59	KOA 08:57	9%	3%	1.4%	94%
WN 1964 Southwest	HNL 17:09	KOA 18:12	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1058 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:38	KOA 09:36	11%	3%	1.4%	86%
WN 717 Southwest	HNL 13:17	KOA 14:24	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1068 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:07	KOA 10:05	12%	3%	1.4%	85%
AS 1078 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:01	KOA 10:59	15%	4%	1.4%	79%
AS 1168 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:53	KOA 19:51	16%	5%	1.2%	88%
AS 9642 Alaska	HNL 09:46	KOA 10:19	16%	3%	1.1%	no record
AS 1088 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:04	KOA 12:02	19%	5%	1.3%	71%
AS 1098 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:33	KOA 12:31	19%	5%	1.3%	74%
AS 1178 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:03	KOA 21:50	21%	5%	1.3%	84%
AS 1158 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:59	KOA 18:45	22%	5%	1.3%	80%
AS 1118 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:53	KOA 13:51	22%	5%	1.3%	77%
AS 1128 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:28	KOA 14:26	22%	6%	1.3%	72%
AS 1148 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:26	KOA 17:12	24%	6%	1.3%	79%
AS 1108 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:00	KOA 12:58	24%	5%	1.4%	74%
AS 1138 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:14	KOA 16:01	25%	6%	1.3%	76%
AS 9643 Alaska	HNL 13:46	KOA 14:19	27%	5%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON