Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2895 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2895 HNL 08:02 → LAS 17:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 876 HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2895 Southwest	HNL 08:02	LAS 17:00	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1323 Southwest	HNL 20:54	LAS 05:26	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 808 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:20	LAS 08:03	19%	4%	0.7%	78%
AS 806 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:55	LAS 16:39	24%	5%	0.9%	78%
AS 876 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:25	LAS 22:10	31%	8%	0.9%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 53m Kahului	OGG 10:36 → LAS 19:10AS 932	8h 08m	99%	76%
United Details →	HNL 13:27 → SFO 21:33UA 650	59m San Francisco	SFO 22:32 → LAS 00:09 +1UA 2400	7h 42m	75%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON