Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 422 HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 802 HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 422 Delta Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:33	10%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1221 United Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:32	12%	4%	0.7%	90%
WN 1427 Southwest	HNL 21:20	LAX 05:36	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 658 Delta Flight history →	HNL 21:30	LAX 06:00	15%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 427 Delta Flight history →	HNL 12:35	LAX 21:00	15%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 1169 United Flight history →	HNL 21:40	LAX 06:03	16%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 1157 United Flight history →	HNL 13:00	LAX 21:23	20%	7%	0.6%	83%
AS 1457 Alaska	HNL 00:16	LAX 08:22	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 144 American Flight history →	HNL 20:30	LAX 05:02	21%	6%	0.6%	87%
AS 804 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 20:39	LAX 05:00	24%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 164 American Flight history →	HNL 15:13	LAX 23:37	25%	7%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AA 162 American Flight history →	HNL 13:38	LAX 22:18	25%	8%	0.6%	81%
AS 810 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	LAX 16:20	26%	4%	0.7%	70%
AS 878 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:09	LAX 19:25	31%	6%	0.7%	60%
AS 557 Alaska	HNL 15:21	LAX 23:30	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 802 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:10	LAX 21:32	39%	7%	0.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 12:00 → KOA 12:58AS 1108	1h 20m Kailua/Kona	KOA 14:18 → LAX 22:27AS 561	7h 27m	94%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:10 → OGG 10:52AS 1066	1h 26m Kahului	OGG 12:18 → LAX 20:20AS 981	7h 10m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:30 → OGG 13:20AS 1096	1h 40m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 37m	94%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON