Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1517 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1517 HNL 06:22 → LIH 07:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1093 HNL 13:49 → LIH 14:39 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1517 Southwest	HNL 06:22	LIH 07:23	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1970 Southwest	HNL 09:37	LIH 10:38	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1003 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	LIH 06:40	7%	1%	1.4%	95%
WN 1972 Southwest	HNL 17:14	LIH 18:09	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4195 Southwest	HNL 20:34	LIH 21:29	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1043 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:11	LIH 10:01	12%	2%	1.4%	91%
AS 1013 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:10	LIH 07:50	13%	2%	1.4%	91%
WN 1499 Southwest	HNL 13:22	LIH 14:28	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1053 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:50	LIH 10:40	15%	2%	1.4%	85%
AS 1023 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:52	LIH 08:32	16%	2%	1.4%	91%
AS 1063 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:35	LIH 11:25	19%	3%	1.4%	82%
AS 1163 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:47	LIH 19:37	19%	4%	1.3%	83%
AS 1173 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:34	LIH 20:24	20%	5%	1.3%	79%
AS 1183 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:17	LIH 22:07	21%	4%	1.3%	96%worse than usual
AS 1153 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:06	LIH 18:56	22%	5%	1.3%	80%
AS 1103 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:38	LIH 15:28	26%	5%	1.4%	75%
AS 1133 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:32	LIH 17:22	26%	5%	1.3%	65%
AS 1113 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:18	LIH 16:08	26%	5%	1.4%	68%
AS 1073 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:20	LIH 12:10	27%	4%	1.3%	62%
AS 1143 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:14	LIH 18:04	28%	5%	1.2%	75%
AS 1123 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:54	LIH 16:44	28%	5%	1.4%	68%
AS 1083 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:07	LIH 13:57	31%	5%	1.4%	68%
AS 1093 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:49	LIH 14:39	32%	5%	1.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON