Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1579 Southwest	HNL 12:02	OAK 20:03	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 848 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:41	OAK 20:44	27%	6%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	3h 33m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → OAK 20:18AS 924	9h 16m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:50 → LIH 10:40AS 1053	2h 00m Lihue	LIH 12:40 → OAK 20:50AS 968	8h 00m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:01 → SEA 15:39AS 90	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 16:47 → OAK 18:56AS 1328	8h 55m	83%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:23 → SEA 19:54AS 267	51m Seattle	SEA 20:45 → OAK 22:47AS 706	8h 24m	64%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON