Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1975 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1975 HNL 05:47 → OGG 06:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1116 HNL 13:01 → OGG 13:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1975 Southwest	HNL 05:47	OGG 06:44	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1523 Southwest	HNL 09:47	OGG 10:49	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1978 Southwest	HNL 07:57	OGG 08:59	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1983 Southwest	HNL 17:19	OGG 18:14	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1432 Southwest	HNL 20:24	OGG 21:19	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1016 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	OGG 06:40	7%	1%	1.0%	94%
WN 1982 Southwest	HNL 15:44	OGG 16:39	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1980 Southwest	HNL 12:22	OGG 13:24	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1981 Southwest	HNL 13:57	OGG 14:59	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1046 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:02	OGG 08:43	12%	2%	1.0%	95%
AS 1026 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:00	OGG 07:40	13%	2%	1.0%	97%
AS 1056 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:16	OGG 10:06	15%	2%	1.0%	91%
AS 1036 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:26	OGG 08:06	15%	2%	1.0%	86%
AS 1416 Alaska	HNL 08:23	OGG 09:12	17%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 1066 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:10	OGG 10:52	17%	3%	1.0%	79%
AS 1076 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:59	OGG 11:41	18%	3%	1.1%	84%
AS 1196 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:30	OGG 20:20	19%	5%	1.3%	85%
AS 1206 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:00	OGG 21:50	19%	4%	1.1%	81%
AS 1176 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:42	OGG 18:23	20%	4%	1.4%	82%
AS 1086 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:24	OGG 12:07	23%	3%	1.0%	75%
AS 1436 Alaska	HNL 15:59	OGG 16:48	24%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 1426 Alaska	HNL 12:14	OGG 13:03	24%	4%	1.4%	no record
AS 1096 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:30	OGG 13:20	24%	4%	1.4%	79%
AS 1146 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:17	OGG 16:07	26%	5%	1.0%	71%
AS 1136 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:49	OGG 15:39	26%	5%	1.0%	65%
AS 1126 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:41	OGG 14:31	30%	4%	1.0%	72%
AS 1116 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:01	OGG 13:45	30%	5%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON