Saturday, October 10 · our forecast odds · issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1428 Southwest	HNL 11:57	ONT 20:45	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 271 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:02	ONT 21:18	34%	6%	0.6%	77%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:32 → SFO 17:52UA 1176	3h 22m San Francisco	SFO 21:14 → ONT 22:42UA 552	10h 10m	99%	76%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 16:23 → ONT 17:52UA 393	7h 42m	91%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON