Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 13:27, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 218 United Flight history →	HNL 16:00	ORD 05:05	15%	5%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 13:27 → SFO 21:33UA 650	1h 57m San Francisco	SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368	11h 30m	97%	79%
United Details →	HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157	2h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962	11h 46m	94%	78%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:23 → SEA 19:54AS 267	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 23:39 → ORD 05:29 +1AS 285	13h 06m	99%	74%
United Details →	HNL 00:05 → DEN 10:47UA 1806	2h 38m Denver	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	12h 00m	98%	72%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 08m San Francisco	SFO 18:23 → ORD 00:27 +1UA 1958	12h 17m	96%	71%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	1h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 16:43 → ORD 22:50UA 2780	10h 50m	92%	70%
American Details →	HNL 13:38 → LAX 22:18AA 162	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 23:33 → ORD 05:40 +1AA 991	11h 02m	84%	65%
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 11:54 → ORD 17:39AS 579	11h 45m	98%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON