Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 860 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 860 HNL 07:38 → PDX 16:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 814 HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 860 Alaska	HNL 07:38	PDX 16:10	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 879 Alaska	HNL 21:44	PDX 06:10	19%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 814 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:22	PDX 20:50	25%	5%	1.0%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 19:30 → OGG 20:20AS 1196	1h 30m Kahului	OGG 21:50 → PDX 06:03 +1AS 558	7h 33m	91%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:06AS 1056	1h 09m Kahului	OGG 11:15 → PDX 19:36AS 890	7h 20m	90%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:01 → KOA 10:59AS 1078	59m Kailua/Kona	KOA 11:58 → PDX 20:35AS 253	7h 34m	84%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON