Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1988 at 20:49 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1988 HNL 20:49 → PHX 05:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 694 HNL 21:36 → PHX 06:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1988 Southwest	HNL 20:49	PHX 05:34	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 836 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:50	PHX 20:39	19%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 694 American Flight history →	HNL 21:36	PHX 06:26	22%	7%	1.0%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 18m San Francisco	SFO 16:33 → PHX 18:41UA 574	8h 31m	93%	67%
United Details →	HNL 09:32 → SFO 17:53UA 1176	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → PHX 20:53UA 1375	8h 21m	86%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON