Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1989 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1989 HNL 08:07 → SAN 16:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 816 HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1989 Southwest	HNL 08:07	SAN 16:51	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1991 Southwest	HNL 21:48	SAN 06:02	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 93 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:59	SAN 06:27	25%	5%	1.5%	89%worse than usual
AS 816 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:39	SAN 21:07	31%	6%	1.5%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:38 → KOA 09:36AS 1058	1h 01m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	7h 24m	90%	73%
Alaska Details →	HNL 21:00 → OGG 21:50AS 1206	1h 13m Kahului	OGG 23:03 → SAN 07:20 +1AS 484	7h 20m	94%	70%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:10 → OGG 10:52AS 1066	1h 30m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	7h 33m	97%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON