Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 373 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 373 HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 812 HNL 14:47 → SFO 22:52 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 373 United Flight history →	HNL 07:10	SFO 15:15	12%	6%	0.7%	90%
UA 916 United	HNL 01:30	SFO 09:37	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1176 United Flight history →	HNL 09:32	SFO 17:53	14%	6%	0.7%	92%
UA 1346 United Flight history →	HNL 22:10	SFO 06:09	15%	5%	0.7%	94%
UA 1947 United Flight history →	HNL 14:11	SFO 22:31	18%	8%	0.7%	79%
UA 3027 United	HNL 12:35	SFO 21:05	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 650 United Flight history →	HNL 13:27	SFO 21:33	24%	8%	0.7%	83%
AS 812 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:47	SFO 22:52	34%	12%	1.2%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 49m Kahului	OGG 10:32 → SFO 18:27AS 978	7h 25m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1128	1h 14m Kailua/Kona	KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48AS 404	7h 20m	88%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON