Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1992 at 08:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1992 HNL 08:12 → SJC 16:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 839 HNL 11:42 → SJC 20:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1992 Southwest	HNL 08:12	SJC 16:42	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 9677 Alaska	HNL 23:46	SJC 07:55	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 839 Alaska	HNL 11:42	SJC 20:00	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076	1h 41m Kahului	OGG 13:22 → SJC 21:30AS 954	7h 31m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON