Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 00:54, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 357 Delta Flight history →	HNL 19:43	SLC 05:45	15%	6%	0.9%	84%
AS 1473 Alaska	HNL 12:49	SLC 22:44	26%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	8h 58m	95%	79%
United Details →	HNL 00:05 → DEN 10:47UA 1806	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:50 → SLC 15:23UA 1840	11h 18m	98%	78%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 18:40 → SLC 21:33UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	10h 23m	96%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 10:52 → SLC 13:46AS 733	8h 52m	95%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	HNL 09:32 → SFO 17:53UA 1176	47m San Francisco	SFO 18:40 → SLC 21:33UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	8h 01m	57%	44%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:23 → SEA 19:54AS 267	52m Seattle	SEA 20:46 → SLC 23:41AS 1454	8h 18m	65%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON