Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Kailua/Kona, leaving 11:33, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1994 Southwest	HNL 12:07	SMF 20:41	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 820 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:12	SMF 20:23	29%	7%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 09:07 → KOA 10:05AS 1068	3h 42m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:47 → SMF 22:01AS 843	9h 54m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	3h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 18:50 → SMF 20:23DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	10h 23m	96%	80%
United Details →	HNL 00:05 → DEN 10:47UA 1806	2h 55m Denver	DEN 13:42 → SMF 15:17UA 662	12h 12m	98%	79%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	58m Los Angeles	LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest	8h 06m	87%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:06AS 1056	3h 47m Kahului	OGG 13:53 → SMF 22:01AS 960	9h 45m	100%	71%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 22m San Francisco	SFO 18:37 → SMF 19:26UA 1862	9h 16m	96%	61%
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	2h 26m Seattle	SEA 11:46 → SMF 13:34AS 772	9h 40m	98%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:00 → KOA 12:58AS 1108	49m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:47 → SMF 22:01AS 843	7h 01m	51%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON