Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2557 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2557 HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 427 HOU 17:33 → ATL 20:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2557 Delta Flight history →	HOU 06:00	ATL 09:05	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 2163 Southwest	HOU 10:28	ATL 13:38	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	HOU 11:00	ATL 14:04	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	HOU 17:17	ATL 20:35	21%	6%	1.6%	77%
WN 2004 Southwest	HOU 14:43	ATL 17:48	25%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 427 Southwest	HOU 17:33	ATL 20:43	26%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON