Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4267 at 17:38, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4267 Southwest	HOU 17:38	BHM 19:26	22%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 10m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:28 → DAL 09:50WN 10	2h 08m Dallas	DAL 11:58 → BHM 13:46WN 1903	5h 18m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → BHM 15:52DL 2484	4h 52m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → BHM 22:34DL 2034	5h 17m	92%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON