Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1636 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1636 HOU 05:58 → DAL 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 44 HOU 17:18 → DAL 18:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1636 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:58	DAL 07:15	3%	1%	1.4%	95%
WN 10 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:28	DAL 09:50	5%	1%	1.4%	97%
WN 18 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:33	DAL 11:55	8%	2%	1.5%	82%
WN 22 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:50	DAL 13:00	11%	2%	1.5%	86%
WN 34 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:38	DAL 16:00	12%	4%	1.5%	80%
WN 48 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:23	DAL 19:45	13%	4%	2.2%	85%
WN 56 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:35	DAL 20:45	17%	6%	2.1%	71%
WN 44 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:18	DAL 18:35	18%	5%	2.1%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON