Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1569 at 16:58, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1569 Southwest	HOU 16:58	DCA 21:04	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	5h 52m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832	7h 48m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:28 → DAL 09:50WN 10	2h 13m Dallas	DAL 12:03 → DCA 16:04WN 113	6h 36m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:50 → DAL 13:00WN 22	3h 48m Dallas	DAL 16:48 → DCA 20:59WN 4711	8h 09m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 35m	88%	71%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472	7h 45m	93%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON