Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3729 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3729 HOU 06:08 → DFW 07:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4015 HOU 16:22 → DFW 17:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3729 Envoy	HOU 06:08	DFW 07:36	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
OO 4924 SkyWest	HOU 11:28	DFW 13:00	17%	11%	2.3%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	HOU 18:38	DFW 20:03	21%	7%	3.6%	no record
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 12:46	DFW 14:09	21%	11%	2.5%	74%
MQ 4015 Envoy	HOU 16:22	DFW 17:42	22%	7%	2.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON