Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1464 at 10:23, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1464 Southwest	HOU 10:23	ECP 12:16	11%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823	6h 40m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:58 → DAL 07:15WN 1636	1h 36m Dallas	DAL 08:51 → ECP 10:54WN 311	4h 56m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → ECP 16:06DL 3094	5h 06m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:51 → ECP 22:58DL 3131	5h 41m	93%	75%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:38 → DAL 16:00WN 34	1h 57m Dallas	DAL 17:57 → ECP 19:58WN 149	5h 20m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON