Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1596 Southwest	HOU 10:28	FLL 14:05	21%	3%	3.5%	no record
WN 2045 Southwest	HOU 17:53	FLL 21:25	27%	5%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	7h 27m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	6h 40m	97%	68%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:28 → DAL 09:50WN 10	3h 43m Dallas	DAL 13:33 → FLL 17:30WN 22	8h 02m	99%	65%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	6h 22m	93%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON