Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	7h 26m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	5h 14m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 24m	94%	75%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:21 → IAD 20:32AA 2254	6h 46m	91%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON