Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2049 at 10:58, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2049 Southwest	HOU 10:58	IND 14:24	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:58 → DAL 07:15WN 1636	1h 33m Dallas	DAL 08:48 → IND 12:04WN 4673	5h 06m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 36m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:28 → DAL 09:50WN 10	2h 08m Dallas	DAL 11:58 → IND 15:14WN 1108	5h 46m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979	6h 27m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:18 → TPA 08:35WN 2133	3h 43m Tampa	TPA 12:18 → IND 14:49WN 4404	8h 31m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → IND 00:20 +1DL 2657	6h 03m	93%	73%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:08 → IND 19:31AA 1413	5h 45m	89%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON