Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 20m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398	8h 03m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	6h 29m	92%	70%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:45 → JFK 21:31AA 481	7h 45m	91%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON