Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2054 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2054 HOU 05:22 → LAS 06:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2059 HOU 18:03 → LAS 19:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2054 Southwest	HOU 05:22	LAS 06:29	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4452 Southwest	HOU 08:40	LAS 09:50	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 5009 Southwest	HOU 12:53	LAS 14:14	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2058 Southwest	HOU 13:58	LAS 15:19	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2060 Southwest	HOU 19:53	LAS 21:14	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2059 Southwest	HOU 18:03	LAS 19:24	24%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON