tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2067 Southwest HOU 10:38 LGA 15:13 18% 5% 0.8% no record
WN 4684 Southwest HOU 14:43 LGA 19:18 24% 7% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 7h 50m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 7h 27m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:28 → DAL 09:50WN 10 1h 28m Dallas DAL 11:18 → LGA 15:48WN 875 6h 20m 97% 79%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 14:38 → DAL 16:00WN 34 1h 43m Dallas DAL 17:43 → LGA 22:13WN 1387 6h 35m 94% 71%
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:45 → LGA 21:26AA 610 7h 40m 91% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:58 → LGA 19:37AA 2434 5h 51m 74% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON