tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4603 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4603 Southwest HOU 08:18 MCI 10:30 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2076 Southwest HOU 18:01 MCI 19:59 17% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:58 → DAL 07:15WN 1636 1h 13m Dallas DAL 08:28 → MCI 10:10WN 1399 4h 12m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:28 → DAL 09:50WN 10 1h 58m Dallas DAL 11:48 → MCI 13:30WN 1686 5h 02m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 6h 12m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 10:33 → DAL 11:55WN 18 3h 18m Dallas DAL 15:13 → MCI 16:47WN 130 6h 14m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660 5h 29m 91% 75%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 6h 41m 93% 70%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 14:38 → DAL 16:00WN 34 2h 44m Dallas DAL 18:44 → MCI 20:17WN 120 5h 39m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:01 → MCI 18:47AA 2267 6h 01m 92% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON