Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3054 at 14:38, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3054 Southwest	HOU 14:38	MEM 16:20	19%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681	5h 56m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → MEM 23:12DL 2501	5h 55m	93%	71%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:35 → MEM 18:16AA 2153	5h 30m	91%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	46m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700	4h 09m	74%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON