Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → ORD 12:27DL 2894	6h 27m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 36m	92%	69%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	6h 12m	94%	62%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:44 → ORD 19:30AA 1290	6h 44m	91%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON