Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2108 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 2108 HOU 06:03 → PHX 06:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2111 HOU 17:23 → PHX 18:18 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2108 Southwest	HOU 06:03	PHX 06:58	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1744 Southwest	HOU 08:28	PHX 09:28	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2110 Southwest	HOU 13:58	PHX 14:53	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1158 Southwest	HOU 19:48	PHX 20:43	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2111 Southwest	HOU 17:23	PHX 18:18	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON