Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 679 at 10:58, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 679 Southwest	HOU 10:58	PNS 12:45	9%	3%	3.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640	6h 55m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:58 → DAL 07:15WN 1636	1h 43m Dallas	DAL 08:58 → PNS 10:50WN 1442	4h 52m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211	6h 10m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → PNS 21:59DL 3086	4h 42m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON