Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4602 at 14:58, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4602 Southwest	HOU 14:58	RDU 18:46	22%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 42m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → RDU 19:15DL 1097	7h 15m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:41 +1DL 2938	6h 24m	95%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:38 → DAL 16:00WN 34	1h 08m Dallas	DAL 17:08 → RDU 20:56WN 1180	5h 18m	91%	63%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → RDU 21:21AA 979	7h 35m	93%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON