tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3537 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3537 Southwest HOU 08:23 SAN 09:55 14% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4686 Southwest HOU 19:48 SAN 21:20 27% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 99% 80%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:58 → DAL 07:15WN 1636 3h 53m Dallas DAL 11:08 → SAN 12:30WN 1879 8h 32m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:30DL 712 10h 30m 99% 76%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 10:33 → DAL 11:55WN 18 2h 48m Dallas DAL 14:43 → SAN 16:00WN 1469 7h 27m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 14:38 → DAL 16:00WN 34 3h 23m Dallas DAL 19:23 → SAN 20:45WN 3796 8h 07m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:50 → SAN 18:59AA 1789 8h 13m 93% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON