Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2630 at 15:13, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2630 Southwest	HOU 15:13	SDF 18:35	17%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	5h 31m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	7h 13m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → SDF 00:14 +1DL 2624	5h 57m	93%	76%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:40 → SDF 18:58AA 2049	5h 12m	84%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON