Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:00, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	8h 31m	93%	66%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656	8h 40m	86%	66%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → SFO 19:23AA 2333	8h 37m	93%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON