Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3882 at 08:23, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3882 Southwest	HOU 08:23	SLC 10:54	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 50m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	9h 56m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:50 → DAL 13:00WN 22	3h 13m Dallas	DAL 16:13 → SLC 18:14WN 1360	7h 24m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:35DL 2381	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	8h 09m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON