Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 14:38, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3544 Southwest	HOU 15:03	SMF 17:20	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 11:50 → DAL 13:00WN 22	3h 53m Dallas	DAL 16:53 → SMF 18:50WN 3845	9h 00m	99%	71%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:43 → SMF 18:20AA 651	7h 34m	91%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON