Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 10:33, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 10:33 → DAL 11:55WN 18	3h 03m Dallas	DAL 14:58 → SNA 16:26WN 1862	7h 53m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 31m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012	10h 00m	99%	76%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:24 → SNA 17:40AA 3223	6h 54m	91%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON