Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2643 at 14:38, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2643 Southwest	HOU 14:38	TUL 16:21	15%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620	6h 04m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:28 → DAL 09:50WN 10	2h 13m Dallas	DAL 12:03 → TUL 13:21WN 1745	4h 53m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:00 → ATL 14:04DL 1509	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837	5h 44m	94%	76%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:38 → DAL 16:00WN 34	3h 28m Dallas	DAL 19:28 → TUL 20:46WN 1193	6h 08m	99%	74%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:19 → TUL 17:38AA 2830	4h 52m	91%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON