Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1688 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1688 HOU 08:18 → ONT 09:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1563 IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1688 Southwest	HOU 08:18	ONT 09:50	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4690 Southwest	HOU 08:28	LGB 10:11	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 05:49	LAX 07:16	8%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 1383 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SNA 09:49	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 2061 Southwest	HOU 08:23	LAX 10:02	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:25	LAX 08:45	11%	4%	0.5%	94%
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 14:54	LAX 16:33	15%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 326 United	IAH 20:01	SNA 21:31	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	16%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 175 Southwest	HOU 14:43	LAX 16:22	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1533 United	IAH 12:27	SNA 13:56	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4998 SkyWest	IAH 20:08	LAX 21:52	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	19%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:48	LAX 20:25	19%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 4748 Southwest	HOU 19:53	LAX 21:32	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:22	LAX 00:08	22%	5%	1.0%	75%
UA 434 United Flight history →	IAH 21:42	LAX 23:09	22%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 1563 United Flight history →	IAH 20:31	ONT 21:55	23%	7%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON