Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2261 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 2261 IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 07:35	FLL 11:22	15%	4%	2.4%	94%
UA 2753 United	IAH 07:55	MIA 11:44	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 06:12	MIA 09:57	17%	4%	1.1%	93%
WN 1596 Southwest	HOU 10:28	FLL 14:05	20%	3%	3.5%	no record
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	FLL 20:22	20%	6%	1.4%	85%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 12:09	FLL 15:51	21%	7%	1.7%	84%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 10:17	FLL 14:06	21%	7%	2.3%	83%
WN 1666 Southwest	HOU 10:58	MIA 14:29	23%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	23%	7%	0.7%	84%
UA 1424 United	IAH 14:46	FLL 18:30	24%	7%	1.5%	no record
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 19:01	MIA 22:40	24%	9%	0.7%	78%
WN 2045 Southwest	HOU 17:53	FLL 21:25	27%	5%	1.5%	no record
F9 1496 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 08:20	FLL 12:01	28%	8%	8.2%	62%
F9 1462 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:48	MIA 14:29	31%	9%	1.3%	73%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 10:46	MIA 14:27	32%	7%	1.2%	87%worse than usual
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 16:49	MIA 20:35	32%	9%	1.1%	57%
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	36%	8%	3.5%	30%
B6 2780 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:00	FLL 16:23	41%	14%	2.0%	35%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	42%	13%	2.4%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON