Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2379 HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5013 HPN 18:39 → ATL 21:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2379 Delta Flight history →	HPN 06:29	ATL 08:46	10%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	HPN 12:51	ATL 15:10	16%	5%	1.0%	79%
9E 5076 Endeavor	HPN 16:22	ATL 18:52	19%	8%	2.9%	no record
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 18:39	ATL 21:13	20%	10%	3.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON